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Discussion Topic:
china transforms north korea
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joveno2029 |
10-05-2007 @ 2:57 PM
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here's a very interesting article on the exploding crossborder trade between china and north korea. it's really interesting that china is now teaching north korea a lot on how market economics works. who would have thunk. i mean just 50 years ago we thought these two would take over all of asia and turn it all communist. i really am hopeful that all these changes will be for the better.
btw, this whole summer the ole wife and i spent 2 months traveling china. and what they say about the construction boom is true. everywhere you look there's the national bird: the construction crane. and the people are all busy buying and selling things. and get this: there's an official government shop right by tiananmen square selling gold and gold coins!!! now i've seen it all.
here's the article: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/IJ06Cb01.html
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DerrickMReid |
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10-06-2007 @ 6:50 AM
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TO ALL, I am a Hard-Right Reactionary Neo-Con, by most measures. If you dont like that orientation,
STOP NOW, and READ NO FURTHER.
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If anyone is interested in condensing these writings into a book, to make $$$$, please advise.
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joveno2029 asks: who would have thunk it?
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Predicting fall of soviet union, fall of berlin wall, who would of thunk it? I thunk it, predicted it, and was told I was crazy. But, its, the neocon mantra. I predicted it before it happened, when the CIA was asleep at the switch.
Notice NK leader in SK, hhmmm, maybe unification. Capitalization of NK, who would thunk it? I thunk it. China has been helpful getting NK to de-newk. In neocon speak, that is a CORE nation bringing along a GAP nation into the fold. Anyone giving odds, berma monks end up in Bejing leading another democracy revolt? Who might thunk it? Like it or not, confluence is inevitable. Democratic China, Why not? 1.5 billion chinese ditched that commie crap and went capitalism in a dud heard around the world, in a gigantic neocon victory. And that is REALITY folks. Call it evil, call it noble, what ever is your politics, dont much care, but do call it inevitable.
PS: Just Observations. Did US go into Afghan because of Terrorists and Iraq because of Saddam, or pursuant to a grand plan? Sure some ideologs were cheering it on.
This message was edited by DerrickMReid on 9-14-08 @ 9:30 AM
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joveno2029 |
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10-06-2007 @ 1:59 PM
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i must have not read your core thesis derrick. so what's your assertion: that the neocons are behind all this? or is this global confluence a natural outgrowth of human yearnings to just make an honest living without government intervention?
i for one see a lot of yin and yang out there. on the one hand is market economics creating globalization, but then theres the retribalization desires of others like in the middle east and africa. i see free markets leading to decentralization but i see big biz trying to subvert it and the american neocons forcing it with guns. i see people yearning to get what we in the west want, but i also see a revulsion of the peoples of the world towards conspicuous consumption.
i see authoritarian free enterprise as jim sinclair puts it rising, but i also see an explosion of freedom thru the internet and mobile phones.
it's really quite confusing out there. but as an optimist i prefer to see the cup half full and rising. eventually it will sort itself out.
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DerrickMReid |
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10-07-2007 @ 8:53 AM
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joveno2029 Below is a copy of my "thesis", its in 7 memos between Jan-05 and Jun 06,
It ends with a time line prediction out to 2035, here is the first year prediction.
===Time Line======PREDICTIONS:
2007 Gold hits 1080, Silver hits 17, Iran remain defiant, NK remains defiant, Oil hits 80/barrow, Bush sits on Baghdad, insurgency is reduced. Peak Gold/Oil is on a perpetual down trend. US debt hits 10T.
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Oil did hit 80.
Bush is sitting on Bahgdad
Insurgency is being reduced
Iran has remained defiant
NK has remained defiant, but starting to crack.
Peak Oil/Gold, seems to be in plateau (maybe peaks)
Good chance US Dept will hit 10T (9.1T as of 11/5/07)
Good chance Gold will hit 1080 (845 as of 11/5/07)
Good chance Silver will hit 17 (16.25 as of 11/5/07)
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Here is the thesis, for what its worth.
This message was edited by DerrickMReid on 11-8-07 @ 11:57 AM
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DerrickMReid |
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10-07-2007 @ 9:13 AM
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Gold & Relation to Global Confluence:
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Global Confluence. Jan 05
The Gold/Dollar Triptich: Dec 05
--US Gov preparing for 2010 FRN Collapse; Dec 05
--Anglos Rule The Bi-Currency World; Jan 06
-- Global Bi-Currencies Economies and Recessions, Feb 06
Gold Supression, Feb 06
War&Dollar replaced by Trade and Gold, May 06
Gold/Silver Price time Line. June 06
=========================================
http://imcs.dvgu.ru/news/dmr/globalconfluence.html
January 8th 2005
Title: The Stabilized Global Confluence Supports a Rising Tide of USA Conservatism into the Out Years, a Christmas projection of Human Cultural Evolution.
Abstract
As world empires and spheres of influence abut each other in the information age, human cultural evolution has lead to economical and political functional rule sets that are used to maintain relative peace during interactions of a CORE of economically and politically connected countries, including Russia, China, USA, EU, Japan, Australia, inter alia, that are coalescing into increasing cooperative action to prevent perturbations shocks, such as the 9-11 attack in New York, from a GAP of disconnected empires, countries and spheres of influence, including Africa, the Middle East, and the South Pacific Island Chains, leading to continued integration of GAP countries in the CORE and eventual world peace for decades, if not centuries, to come. USA President Bush and his Republican Party, based on traditional moral values, and his willingness to unilaterally act based on those moral values, will derive political gain from an anticipated global confluence of increasing global stabilization, leading to another USA Republican Party victory in the USA 2008 election. For definitional purposes, in the USA, left is considered progressive-liberalism, the Democrat Party, headed of late by Candidate Mr. Kerry, of new ways, and the right is considered traditional-conservatism, the Republican Party, currently headed by President Bush, of historical ways. In Russia, the left is considered progressive-democracy, including Reformist and Democratic Parties, the new way, and the right is totalitarian-socialism, the Communist Party headed by Mr. Zuganoff, the old historical way.
USA
The rising tide of traditionalism and conservative values in the USA will probably extend past the next USA election in 2008, seating at least one more Republican party victory, and Democrat Senator (NY) Ms. Hilary Clinton's belated attempts to cloak herself in a right wing robe will be seen for the farce it is, and as such, the democrats have dug a hole from which it will take at least 6 years of moving towards the political center to make them again nationally competitive. Is this overly optimistic for a Republican? I don’t think so, and here is why. I project by end of next year, Iraq will settle down ending 35 years of war and depravations, and over the next two years, Palestine will experience a peace for first time in 40 years of Middle East conflict. President Bush will be herald as the first USA president firmly backing a side-by-side sovereign co-existence to success, and this should come to past.
Hence, there is a potential confluence of good things just over the horizon in the Middle East. Iran and Syria will have virtually no client state in the Middle East to sow seeds of terror. Why? It must be remembered that Iraq is predominately Shiite Muslim and with peace in Iraq and the growing stature of Shiite Islamic clerics there, such as Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, and with the majority political rule of the Shiites growing disproportionately to other political and religious subdivisions in the region, it is in Iran's theocratic interest to accept and support this outcome, and to this extent, Iranian hostility will substantially decrease with the USA, and this will end three decades of subversive political belligerence between the two. And Iran must know that if they sow seeds of terror, and harbor terrorists, while developing long range missiles and enriched Uranium for nuclear arms, President Bush will take them down in a heartbeat, with or without UN cooperation. Libya's strong man Omar Kadafi has already got the message and has turned away from WMD development and terror sponsorship. When you teach hate of others and sow seeds of terrorism, it will come back to bite you in the tail as Saudi Arabia has finally learned from Al Queda attacks in the Kingdom as indicated by their recent public policy statement, "Islam Yes, Terrorism No". As Afghanistan and Iraq will prove President Bush correct again, democratic principles will take firm root in the Middle East, and Iranian, Syrian, and Saudi Arabian women will eventually get the right to vote moving in mass towards democratic principles in the out years. This is a rosy scenario for sure, but the more I keep looking at it, it seems more probable than not.
With the growing prospective successes in Palestine, Mesopotamia, and hopefully on the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwanese straights, the USA and the Bush Administration will be looked upon more favorably, as once again, France and Germany will pretend to be important and USA friends. This will increase prestige of the USA Republicans, cementing a 2008 election victory. If the Democrats start now with the shift in political thinking towards the center, the 2012 USA election may be salvageable by them. I like it that way, back and forth, with corrective moderation from time to time. I like the moderates both left and right, we need both of them for sure to balance each other. Loyal dissent from the party not in power is a very good thing, so long as it does not lead to sedition, as disloyal dissent.
President Bush on the other hand has placed upon his shoulders a vast array of to-do items on the agenda for the next term, and that includes, social security, immigration, military force restructuring, tax code reforms, among many others, and he has the political will and energy to pull it off to a large extent. On the supportive side, the USA traditionalists will continue a backlash against the radical progressive secularists attempting to destroy USA morality, and the majority of the Americans, left and right, fear these extremists tinkering with our heritage. As such, the moderate Democrats will feel more conformable with a Republican in the White House as the right base of the Republican party firmly cements itself in the Republican camp, both of whom will remain ready and willing to keep the conservatives in power.
A Republican candidate in 2008 will ride President Bush's coat tails into office. Recall that USA Republican President Reagan won twice, and Republican President Bush Sr. rode his coat tails and got elected, only to be then followed with eight years of Democrat President Clinton. The USA also had President Kennedy, a Democrat leader that led to Democrat President Johnson's election, who failed in Vietnam. And then came Republican President Nixon who engaged in criminal political espionage in disgrace, and so goes the political stories, as we Americans will not hesitate to throw a bum out of office, as we bounce back and forth between moderate liberalism and conservatism, both of which move with the times, and are needed for balance so that no one party gains an absolute lock on political power, a charge currently being raised against Russian President Putin. For the time being, its look likes 2008 is secure for the Republicans, as the Democrats move towards the center, to make the 2012 election a real contest, and rightfully so. The global confluence will support the conservatives in the USA, seen in the USA as doers and getting results. USA Homeland Security will get less and less funding and resources are used to serve social needs, reduce deficits, and fund system administration peace keeping forces, needed now more than the big guns of battleships, or a large number of USA attack military divisions configured during the cold war.
In the USA, there is much debate over the progress of the War in Iraq. What is missing from the USA blame-gamers, Democrat Senator Biden for example, that is, the political rivals seeking political capital rather than constructive dialog as to future courses of action, and from those over-reactors, that is, those calling for Secretary of Defense, Rumsfield's resignation, for every little pump in the road, is the collective cultural history of a humanity perspective and its understanding by viewing the problem of the day in the historical context and teachings, that is, to take a step back, a deep breath, and look at over all trends, and the cultural evolution of man kind, through a perspective in terms of decades and centuries, and not the daily count of USA dead in Iraq. The USA has the military to win any standup fight, and the victory in Iraq took only three weeks using conventional military forces. What the USA lacked and what the rest of world was unwilling to provide was a massive system administration of the peace keeping forces to quickly nation build Iraq into a functioning democracy. But, as long as the Iraqis stand in recruitment lines to join the Iraqi national guard service, eventually Iraq will be stabilized. More USA troops in Iraq would, arguably, only provide more targets of opportunity for the Iraqi insurgents, while inflaming Islamic sensitivities of not wanting the infidels on their lands. The Iraqi national guard must be stood up to defend for themselves, so the USA military can leave, and Iraq becomes connected to the CORE. However, emotions run high in the USA when USA soldiers' lives are on the line, but keeping it all in context and perspective, keeps the USA on the right track moving forward, rather than backward in knee-jerk emotional reactions. Could those who lived during the great economic depression of the 1930s have predicted the economics of a 21st century USA, or the internet, or nano-technology? Viewed in an historical context, the current USA economic state would seem to have been inevitable.
How did recent global confluence start? What put into motion the possibility of this rosy scenario? He prays. He is a man of God. He knows right from wrong. He has guts to act to do what he believes is the right thing. His name is G.W.Bush, now hated by some, because he spoiled their détente, their whippy do nothing mentality, their pacifism at any cost, their selfish political turf protectionism, their indifference to human slaughter, and their sought after destruction of the USA morality. Yes, I think President Bush is a hero, and these goods things are a direct or indirect result of President Bush's willingness to act. It will take some time for the Democrats to mount a serious challenge to the growing conservative political power in the USA, as the Democrats move towards the center hoping to regain lost ground, but that is the proper and natural response in a democracy that bounces back and forth as the pendulum swings, but I consider the 2008 election already a done deal, and that election is in the bag for the Republicans. The global confluence will be perceived as positive in the USA, and it seems that the conservatives will remain in power for at least one more election in 2008.
CHINA
In other areas, China does not seek imperialism, and with its aging population certainly will not allow its young men off campaigning in foreign lands. You think the USA and Russia has social security problems with two workers supporting one pensioner, think of China with one worker supporting six pensioners (two parents and four grandparents), and China will sense the need for China to sustain its capitalistic growth while pretending at all times to be a so-called communist country, and this is the biggest farce presently on the global stage. China's 1000 year culture has been to look within itself to secure its various cultures and boundaries and intra-countries as one China, and hence, the USA one China policy. This is why Taiwan is a major concern for China. It has been China entire historical culture to maintain the integrity of the borders of China proper. Taiwan is Chinese, and had it not been but for imperial Japan, we would not have that problem today. It seems we are still cleaning up the mess of our dear German and Japanese friends.
The USA, correctly so, has maintain a one China policy, and here, the USA seeks integration of Taiwan into China provided that mainland China respects self determination democratic rights in Taiwan, which is what the Taiwanese want, inherently so. And with the necessary and prospective integration of Taiwan back into China under the one China policy, and with trade increasing, and with yet another implosive moving force of democracy into the China by virtue of Taiwanese prospective integration, China will move more and more in democratic directions. This secondary confluence of political stabilization about the environs of China will provide more forceful interaction with the crazy guy in North Korea, and China will become more proactive. North Korea will begin eventually a slide towards non-confrontation, to cooperation, to eventual reunification with South Korea, though that is still 10 years out, but at least the hostilities should soon substantially decrease.
China is moving full steam ahead into international trade, and there seems to be no end in sight. China is on the capitalistic team and not the communist team, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. This is more of a result of Beijing's desire for increased standards of living and influence, than a direct result of anything the USA Administration has done, though that is of no import, as it is the perception in politics, that China and USA are moving closer together, and the USA Administration in power will get some misplaced credit for that in the USA. I find it curious that Russia and China would have joint military operations, as if to send the USA a signal that they could possibly thwart a military 4th generation technological conventional USA advance, which USA advance is not even remotely conceivable, and so I think the exercise is more for training, public perception and pride, than anything else. Though, both should maintain some residual military capabilities for national defense purposes, and for cooperative strikes against rouge GAP nations. For example, it is entirely possible that Russia and China would move to take out the crazy guy in North Korea in the out years, if necessary, and thereby keeping out the Yankees from doing the same, and China and Russia would then garner some prestige on the world stage, in so doing, as the USA sacrifices Taiwan to China in return, and as the USA shares the USA Pacific missile defense system to protect the Pacific CORE as that system is currently being expanded in the Pacific.
RUSSIA
I could not help but have a sympathetic view of his Excellency President Putin in his public interview about 12/20/04, to see the leader of such a large state on the defensive. He is trying to help Russia with its security and standard of living, two aspects that are valued allot more than pure democracy principles in Russia. Russia has a history of Czars and politburo offering firm control, that is, a culture of strong-man rule, as it is Russian culture, I presume. When you can not earn enough money to buy some vodka, and the children are getting slaughtered in their schools, wide ranging political debate on the nightly shows don’t seems all that big a deal to common Russians, I think. I can understand this a little. We USA conservatives don’t value left wing crazies here, and we would like to deport American Civil Liberties Union liberal lawyers over to Russia, and deprive them of civil liberties there, and throw a party here, and enjoy the love-hate slug festival, as President Putin throws each and everyone of them in jail, when they speak out, on criminal charges for merely breathing Russian air.
Yet President Putin seems to get scolded every time President Bush gets righteously annoyed, and on his high-horse, over modest trampling of democratic rights in Russia, yet the writing is on the wall, in my view, and democracy and free market forces are irreversibly embedded into the post-soviet Russian and regional politics and their respective economies. President Putin might feel some disappointment by a lack of influence in the recent Ukrainian elections. Ukrainian ethnic Russians will learn from this, that is, when you play unfairly in a democracy, it usually gets discovered and comes back to bite you in the tail, a democracy strength, surfacing in Ukraine, and that is a good thing. I consider the election fiasco in Ukraine to be a good object lesson to those Ukrainians who tried to steal the election. And, I will always remember President Kuchma and President Putin talking together regarding a regional sphere of influence, but that was doomed from the start as too little, at the wrong time in history, as way to late to resurrect any form of a soviet style block already proven to be a failed experiment. In the USA, we say, "If you can not beat them, join them", and Russia will join and is joining free political and economic globalization in full measure. And, it is certainly proper for President Putin to build localized economic cooperation, as the USA has done with Mexico and Canada, and has been intrinsically done in the EU.
It is of course natural for President Bush to publicly speak for USA domestic political consumption, and President Bush operates from an American cultural perspective, that is, ideals of democracy embedded in morality, and with transgression of that, he will act, as the bold leader he his, but from the Russian perspective, that can be seen as arrogant. President Putin's allegiance to the Unified Russia political party indicates that President Putin's main concerns lie in defeating the Chechnya rebellion and maintaining Russian sovereign integrity, defeating terrorist actions within Russia to protect Russian citizens, and making Russia economically strong and competitive with the west, and not so much in maintaining idealistic democratic functions, to President Bush's continued consternation. What does President Bush know about what is best for Russia at this time and place? Hence, the charge of arrogance, when in reality, President Bush may sense some need to help Russia move along the democracy trail. President Bush may also be playing into American fears of a back sliding Russia, and wants to garner political gain. But what is best way to say things for both foreign and domestic consumption? That is a difficult balanced judgement to make. Bush has objected to media controls of political expression on Russian TV by President Putin. These controls may stem from this difficulty of balancing information intended for either foreign or domestic consumption, but not both, or a political power play to become a de facto Czar, or to sustain his political party into the out years, or more probably a well-intentioned but misguided reactionary attempt to stabilize Russia, and only time will tell what are President Putin's true intentions, though President Putin has promised to not seek another term, I think. From President Bush's perspective, there are collections of acts by President Putin that can be seen as anti-democratic, and hence, of legitimate concern. What President Putin may not realize is that tinkering with democracy may ultimately hurt his legacy, as USA President Nixon painfully learned.
What President Bush has said of Ukraine was proper as assassination attempts and rigging of the election is inherently bad. But the confiscation of Yukos seems to me like a Standard Oil situation of our early 20th century anti-trust action against business monopolies, and President Putin maybe trying to defeat the economic head-locks and political controls by powerful oligarchical chieftains, such as Mr. Mikhail Khodorkovsky now having a modest vacation at President Putin's expense, though there are allegations of anti-democratic political motives in the presence of promises that President Putin would not seek to become the next Czar of Russia, and that privatization would continue. The regional appointments of federation governors at a time of rebellion in Chechnya is similar to our appointment of southern state governors after our 19th century civil war, and internment of Chechnya rebels may be like the USA interment of USA southern rebels, or USA President Lincoln's denial in 1862 of habeas corpus rights of prisoners to judicial hearings at a time of rebellion, or, the interment of USA Japanese citizens during the great patriotic war WWII. Recent enacted Russian legislation is similar to the USA Patriot Act, giving authorities new powers to monitor suspected terrorists, to the dismay of civil libertarians. USA and Russia have common responses when faced with similar problems. Maybe President Bush should have expressed some of his concerns in back channels. Of course, I am not sure of it all, and in the end, its all politics. On the other hand, President Bush's shoulder-to-shoulder comment after the butchering of the Russian children, was correct, and President Bush played that up very nicely. But no man is prefect, and neither is President Bush, but what makes President Bush so great, in my eyes, is his willingness to act, when he is so compelled to do so. When in command, lead.
Notwithstanding President Bush's righteous rants, by and large President Putin is doing an acceptable job in Russia, in my view, and as an American, I give President Putin a pass, and as a vicarious Russian, I give President Putin good marks for leading Russia in a measured manner at this time and place in Russian history. Just give Russia some more time. The USA has 225 years of democracy, and Russians are taking their first baby steps, but generally over-all, President Putin is moving Russia in the right direction. Regardless of the extent to which Presidents Bush and Putin fight it out in the vortex of public debate for political influence and gain, the global functional rule sets will keep Russia and the USA on track towards closer ties and friendship leading to a great super-alliance in the out years. I hope in February 2005, President Bush lightens up a bit, when President Putin and President Bush meet, and we get them two to have a good-old Russian bear hug in front of the whole world to see.
Russia's future lies, I think, in an integration into NATO as well as the EU, more so than with the less economically viable southern ex-soviet states, such as Kazakhstan, as Russia is historically an eastern European power, and Russia will move more and more in trade with the west, and Russians' standard of living will improve until Russia is a super economic power in 25 years. In the out-years, Russia-China-US will combine as the tri-party de facto dominant rulers in the world, as the EU remains politically weak minded in their socialism and progressive secularism.
EUROPEAN UNION and CANADA
The EU and Canada will remain intrinsically stagnant in economic and political profile, based on their rewarding of social irresponsibility by a disproportionate welfare state and the continued ruination of the historical Christian morality, with at least some exceptions, including England and Poland who still have an historical memory of the pit falls of Nazi pacifism, leading to aggression, and not peace, and including Italy having a strong moral base. What makes capitalism work is that it takes advantage of human desires for better lives through reward of individual hard work resulting in increased productivity and abundance. A democracy will follow the will of the people desiring that increased productivity and abundance. Hence, capitalism and democracy support human prosperity and the dignity of work. When capitalism and democracy are coupled with a moral base, corruption in the political and economic systems is limited. The moral base also extends a helping hand to those in need, willingly so, without state directives in socialism that foster irresponsibility by reliance upon others, rather than self reliance, a willingness to act. The loss of any one of these western tri-pillars, capitalism, democracy, and morality, spells certain doom to any society in the long run. Europe is losing its pillars of strength. The Europeans don’t wear six-shooters. By contrast, President Bush is a gun-slinging sheriff. In the USA, there is a culture of English democracy, Christian morality, colonial capitalism, and a western expansion of self reliance. Europe is faltering. However, there will be a significant shift in the EU towards the new entrants, including Poland, Ukraine and Bulgaria, and eventually Russia then having a dominant role in EU politics. This influx of new peoples may hopefully reawaken the EU back towards a capitalistic, democratic and moral union. I consider Britain's Prime Minister Blair a hero, and he deserves the thanks of the USA Congress for making the tuff decision in Iraq, and that thanks is well over due.
There is very slight glimmer of hope for Canada, though, as the know-it-all traditionalist USA media mega-personality Mr. Bill O'Reilly muscles his way into the Canadian media-political complex. I have not given up on Canada, though it seems Canada could not possibly sink any lower into the depravations of radical progressive secularism. Not so with France, as I think they are hopeless, and seem unsalvageable having a spineless inability to act, as in Sudan, based on a lack of any moral context, while hopelessly attempting to sustain some resemblance of a past empire long lost in importance on the world stage. Germany and Spain are not so far gone, with Spain having a strong moral base, and, Germany having remanence of conservative values as pocket of conservatism remain in the Bavarian regions.
However, the influx of eastern Europeans into the EU political mix will keep the EU as least neutral in their international political affairs, and hence, is basically a neutral influence. The Russians, however, seem to be coming to God in vast numbers now that the politburo is no longer pressing its thumb on religious expressions, and the Russians are increasingly capitalistic as Lenin turns in his grave, and the Stalin experience will prevent Russia from backsliding into a totalitarian police state, as the Russians and eastern Europeans will have more in common with the USA than their western EU neighbors, by and large.
ISLANDS
The Japanese and Australians have proven to be good partners in trade and political influence to the USA Pacific center, and these are the left and right flanks of the Indonesian pincers of stability in the south Pacific. While there is much ado about the USA Pacific Missile Defense plans, most of that may end up the trash heap of unnecessary military expenditures, only to be viewed as such 10 years hence, when the crazy guy in North Korea finally falls. In the mean while, prosperity in the south Pacific island chains will increase leading to sedation of the militants there. Alternatively, advanced missile defense technology could be retained and shared in mutual defense of the CORE from unpredictable crazies in the economically and politically unconnected rouge GAP countries possessing missile technology, such as Iran. As such, CORE members, such as China, will eventually learn that it is counterproductive to sale advanced missile technology to unstable GAP countries.
Cuba has, post Cuban missile crises, been a non issue, and will remain so, though their movement towards democracy and capitalism seems stagnant until at least Mr. Castro dies, and forseeability there is too clouded, but Cuba is only fly on the wall in the major movements of the era. Cuba seems destined to remain disconnected from the CORE. As Cuba falls behind in prosperity, maybe Cuba will turn around, all by itself in the out years, as China and the soviets have done, though I can not see it at this stage, not knowing what political forces are to be in play in Cuba, post Castro era.
GLOBAL CONFLUENCE
With the easing of tensions on the Korean peninsula, in the Taiwanese straights, and in the Middle East, focus will eventually turn in full toward Africa, and the Sudanese, for example, in remembrance of other past slaughter there in Central Africa, that the UN utterly failed to prevent. The UN is embarrassed by the oil for food scandal, and that will only support the legitimacy of President Bush's stance of UN irrelevance, President Bush being proved once again to be correct in his analysis. However, the problems associated with Africa will be much easier to deal with, as the Russia-China-US-EU, the big four CORE, coalesces into a cohesive moving force in the UN, and action will be much more easily obtained. However, the USA will remain the only superpower having conventional kick-down-the-door heavy invasion forces capable of being projected instantaneously worldwide, and none will even try to rival this capacity, as there is no need.
But the UN and the big four will restructure force capabilities with more system administration forces, that is, peace keeping forces and support logistics, such that, these forces can be effective in action and quickly deployed for rapid resolution, with the USA going in and taking down any bad guy, with the rest of the big four and others following up with massive peace keeping and humanitarian aid for immediate nation building after a USA invasion. Under this combination of power, Africa's bad boys can be taken down, converted, and integrated into the CORE of the big four, so as to economically and politically connect these rouge GAP countries to the CORE, and improve the GAP countries with prosperity and civility, in so doing. As this is more fully understood, the global cry of "Yankee Go Home", will change to "Yankee Come Here", appreciating USA sought after trade, globalized cooperation, and mutual defense. And surely no one objects to the USA using its material and military logistics resources in time of regional devastation. Has anyone noticed how rapidly in recent times, CORE resources are channeled into GAP countries after a catastrophe, such as the earth quake in Iran and the recent Tsunami in the Indian Ocean, supporting long range support and integration of the GAP into the Core. The USA leads the way as the most generous country in the world stemming from a cultural moral base and interests in raising other peoples from poverty and oppression. Be it direct money grants, direct aid in food stores and materials, protection of others and international trade routes through vast military expenditures, and capital investments, the USA stands tall in its unilateral compassion for others, the vast majority of whom are GAP recipients, notwithstanding a lack of global appreciation.
The global confluence is also supported by the worldwide collective battle against all terrorists, and over the next five years, acts of terrorism will substantially decease. The untold benefit of collective worldwide fight against terrorists in the war on terror is the increase in intelligence sharing that will have a direct consequence in lowering international crime including drug smuggling, currency counterfeiting, organized crime, and the trade in human slaves, children and prostitutes. Osama Bin Laden will one day get hammered, though by then, the war on terror will be virtually over, as governments worldwide deal with the problem of global poverty to lower radicalism then no longer feeding recruitment of new insurgents worldwide.
Cont.
This message was edited by DerrickMReid on 10-27-07 @ 12:57 PM
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DerrickMReid |
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10-07-2007 @ 9:14 AM
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Joined: Aug 2007
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To support this global confluence, the budding democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan will have a spill over effect in the region, as set in motion by the last conservative USA Bush administration. The USA does not seek to destroy Islam, having at its core, a good moral foundation, that provides the social glue in the region. Like responses to abortion clinic bombings here in the USA, Americans seek to contain extreme elements of Islam, that is, the terrorizing islamo-facists, and this will eventually be fully understood by Islamic countries in the Middle East, resulting in lower hostilities, as well as an end to the Russian and American hue and cry, kill them, kill them all, kill them now. Iran, as well as Syria and Saudi Arabia, will move more toward democratic principles, with Syria and Saudi Arabia instituting at least local intra-regional elections, and Iran moving to give women the right to vote, all of which will have a positive affect in geo-political interaction with the CORE of the big four, and in so doing, these hard line Islamic countries will finally turn away from centuries social stagnation caused by intolerance and the conquer-the-by-sword mentality reflected by the iconic flag of Saudi Arabia, towards new found prosperity and cooperative civility.
HUMAN CULTURAL EVOLUTION
France and England are the classical historical teachings of prior confluence. For 1000 years, England and France were going at it in war, empire building filling the vacuum as new lands were discovered. But eventually, those new areas of empire building eventually became full with occupation and new entrants, such as the USA. As the ability to expand empire became more limited, France and England eventually became to be cooperative allies, and have effectively remain so, for the last 150 years. Here, the USA, EU, China and Russia have exhausted expansion tendencies, by and large, and now seek cooperative interaction as it has so become in their collective and individual interests. But it will take another 40 years to get the global house in substantial good order, and the second half of the 21st century will focus more on environmental issues to support the peace of the world, without the recurring war culling of humans and consequential property devastation. But I will be long gone by then, and that is not my problem, and so I leave that to next generation of creative thinkers, and those willing to act and do the right thing.
The global confluence has its roots in God. Here, the USA morality has lead the world. No one can honesty believe, the USA is in Iraq to take their oil from them. The USA can buy as much oil as needed, as oil is a fungible commodity. The USA has not sought empire building in a fully occupied world, though that only stopped after completing of our manifest destiny, the expansion to the west coast of the USA, just as the Russians expanded through their far east to the coast of North America. Hitler, Imperial Japan, and Stalin are the modern exceptions of course, operating from selfish demoniacal desires for global dominance. But with cooperative interactions, coupled with mutual defense, with globalization of trade, and with functioning rule sets for dispute resolution, it seems that these exceptions will be contained, by the remaining partners, in the out years and for decades to come. It is the USA morality that has lead the way in recent years. The rise of Christian-Judeo GOD rejection of evil war lords and tyrants, starting at about 300 BC, has been the primary moving force toward civility over the centuries worldwide. And, "Those who can not see the hand of God in this are blind, sir, blind" Brigadier General T.J. Jackson, Valley Campaign, 1862, USA. We should recall how USA President Reagan characterized the soviets as an evil empire, placing the great east-west confrontation in a moral context, consistent with American moral culture.
I believe we are reaching a tipping point, as the wealth, population, and interaction of the CORE of cooperative countries (Russia-China-India-EU-US, etc.) exceeds that of the non-functioning GAP of disconnected countries, (Africa, Middle East, and South Pacific, and of course, the cold-war hold-over in North Korea). Of the 6 Billion on earth, 4 Billion live in the CORE in relative peace as war breaks out from time to time in the GAP. As the CORE becomes more dominate over the GAP, at some point, there is the bend in an exponential, and rouge militant countries will fall like dominoes and connect with the CORE. President Bush, or for that matter, Osama Bin Laden's 9/11 attack, may have put into motion a last and inevitable collapse of social global militancy, as we as a global people will find over-all functioning peace for decades, if not centuries, to come. Yes, we Americans are culturally eternal optimists, and I plead guilty.
Sure it is rosy global prediction, and sure assumptions are made, but it seems that there is a natural course of human cultural evolution, in that, there was first the creation of kings with tribal rule sets from the cultivation age to the iron age, then there were great empires battling for remaining lands and conquest over others from the iron age to the industrial age, but as the great geo-political CORE of the big four abut each other, with no more room for expansion, and the eventual learning of the draw backs of global war and the benefits of collective cooperation, human kind and geo-political functional rule sets finally culturally evolve from the empires of the industrial age into civilized partners in the information age, and in the end, that is a very good thing.
Sincerely
Derrick Michael Reid
The Bi-Currency Triptych, By Derrick Michael Reid, Jan 06
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US Government is Preparing for the 2010 FRN collapse.
Being a true blooded Yankee, and only using Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs) in my daily life, I have been to Russia many times, and am struck how banks there allow one to deposit Euros, USDs, and Rubles in accounts designated in such denominations, something I can not readily do at my USA Well Fargo bank. When depositing and withdrawing these fiat moneys in Russia, one can effectively trade currencies by a simple trip to the bank, or a curb side stop. I am amused there by the hoards of street money changers virtually on every corner, vigorously shaking their Rubles in advertisement for swapping Rubles for US Dollars. I never see such events on the streets of Laguna Beach California, nor else where in the good old USA.
When the federal reserve reduced interest rates in the 2001 time frame to pump up the economy, as the exchange rate dropped, the Russians, remembering several collapses of Ruble, were very concerned, as the USD had been for years their safe haven of choice for monetary wealth preservation. I said it was a result of interest rate decreases. Not understanding USA monetary policy by common Russians, they listened to me very intently. Common Russians, by and large, do not possess safe haven real money coinage in silver and gold, and rely on the most stable of all fiat money for wealth holdings. From my personal interactions, I have found that common Russians are educated and intelligent peoples, but are hyper-sensitive to fiat money fluctuations, and naturally so, having been twice burned badly by the Ruble collapses, especially after the fall of the Soviet Union. Many had their entire life savings wipe out over night by that fiat money, and they of course, blame it all on the USA. With respect to the gift of democracy, they seem to say, "money cant buy everything that's true, but what it cant buy, I cant use, I WANT MY MONEY BACK"! Most Russians blame their loss of life savings on us Yankees, the cold war victors. President Reagan's military build up broke the Russians when trying to keep up militarily. Russians, unlike most Americans, have a healthy distrust of fiat money. However, they do not generally hold real money in silver and gold coinage, as it is generally not minted is large amount by the Russian central banks only offering some specialty coins with very high minting surcharges.
Now, there seems to be a new global movement afoot, and this movement is not really understood by this author. It is an undefined confluence of subtle thinking and conduct. Notwithstanding a precise understanding of this movement, it is real, and it may give Mr. Bill Murphy's GATA following some support in the very near future. Something in the fiat monetary world is definitely changing, but what? Maybe Mr. Murphy has been on target all along. Surprisingly, the Russian central bank, in Russia having vast mine reserves, has now decided to increase its FOREX reserves, and President Putin has recently indicated that Russia's gold reserves should be increased from the current 5% to 10% or more over the next several years. But Putin's Russia still retains cultural secrecy and vertical controls as aspects of the old soviet empire in which President Putin was reared and in which he is now the de facto czar. President Putin calls for increased bank gold reserves while Russia is now stating that its gold production has dropped. Hmmm, sounds like a possible secret Yuko's confiscation. There are also rumors that other Asian banks, such as China and Japan, may increase their gold reserves from a tiny 1% of their FOREX reserves. Other world banks seem to be taking notice as well of gold trends and ballooning US debt, as Venezuela and South Africa, inter alia, have also indicated new interest in building their gold reserves. Central bank gold sales by the EU seem to be slowing as well, if not reversed, as the British exchequer, Mr. Brown, gets repeatedly slammed for selling vast amounts of British gold reserves at the bottom of the gold price in about 2000. I suspect Britain will now think twice about selling any more gold from its reserves. There is a global movement out there and something big is afoot for sure.
When looking at global trends, this novice in the gold market, who jumped in at $270 in late 2000, sees a global trend towards hoarding gold, but why? Not a stock trader, nor a gold trader, in late 2000 when gold was low, I simply figured it was a safe long term investment, not knowing any better, and did not blink during the channel up trend corrections from late 2000 to late 2005 when Gold finally entered the so-called phase II break out. But having seriously jumped in, I started to seriously review market commentary, and particularly like the differing of opinions. With gut feelings that something big was afoot, Mr. Murphy and his gang at LeMetropoleCafe.com caught my eye. An engineer and patent lawyer by profession, I have little training in gold markets, but one thing has, over the years, stuck in my mind. In about early 1980, I purchased a hand full of Krugerrands, then in vogue, at about $240/oz and sold at $290/oz, and thought to myself, good job, well done, and patted myself on the back, being so proud. When gold hit $850/oz, I was taken back and realized, I really did miss the boat during that bull run. I have learned from my mistake. With my engineering training, I am comfortable with graphs. Without an expert knowledge of the gold market, I look at the graph in generic terms. I looked at the bull run then and now in three phases, first is the bull run basing, the low linear slope up in price, now characterized as a channel bull run between 2000 and late 2005. Now I suspect there should be a high linear slope increase in price, now characterized by some as phase II, and signaled by the recent break out from the 2000-05 bull run channel. After this, in about 2008, I expect, the exponential explosion, the phase III, like the 1980 curve to $850/oz. From my limited view, and for whatever reason one may choose, it seems that gold will hit at least $2750/oz about 2010-11. I wont miss the boat this time around.
But then I take a step back, as an American, as I am torn in my loyalties, between a desire for strong US dollars and personal greed in gold. I want a golden nest egg from my children, but also want a strong dollar for a healthy economy in which my children will live. But how can I have it both ways? And so I ponder this question and seek possible scenarios from those in the know. I want my cake and eat it to. While Mr. Douglas V. Gnazzo may suggest I buy a wheelbarrow to carry my 2010 FRNs, I think I will have a better use of it then. I think that a wheelbarrow for FRNs may not be necessary, the $100,000 FRN might be printed, at virtually no cost. But, I do buy into the twin deficits that throttle the FRNs, and that, with war-hawks, bleeding hearts, and natural disasters, there really is no political end in sight to the twin deficits, at least until federal budget pay-go becomes popular again in about 2010, after the FRN then collapses, when gold hits at least $2750/oz, in my view. For most Americans, like those Russians, life time savings in FRNs will be wiped out in real value, and only then will Americans gain a healthy distrust of fiat money.
The inevitable collapse the FRN will not spell doom for the good old USA, in my view. This is the good news. The USA is the 3rd largest gold producer subject to 2010 wind-fall taxes, as in 1860 when the comstock load silver mines funded the civil war, and when the USA $20 gold coin was king in the rebel south. With increasing silver prices, the very low 117,000 million ounces in central banks can be quickly ramped up to support a global silver and gold currency, which presently exist in fact, but called as such. The USA holds 26% of world gold bank reserves, and that matches 25% of the world profits being generated in the USA. While Mr. Murphy may claim there is a cartel suppressing Gold prices, the US seems to not be a member, as Fort Knox still seems immune to goldfinger's gold suppression attacks. There is plenty of central bank gold stocks and silver mines about to support a US real money currency. That is, it seems that the world will eventually dump fiat money, and currency traders will be history, in the out years. The FRN being the world reserve currency, will be the first of the fiat money to fall from grace, as the world banks dump the dollar, trying not to be last to bail out of FRNs. The USA national debt will also be effectively wiped out by tremendous devaluation of the FRNs, a possible intended scheme by the US Government to effectively defraud bankers and savers world wide.
There is an excellent article by Mr. Douglas V Gnazzo offering a history of US bearer notes and the FRN, the former backed by silver as a real dollar, that is, real money. The US to this day still strikes $1 silver and $50 gold coinage, real money, and I was struck (no-pun intended) that the US is still minting real money, yet also prints fiat paper money, concurrently. I am always amused by the $1 and $50 stated value on my real money coinage. With the inevitable global collapse of fiat money between 2010-2015, the federal reserve may be preparing itself to wipe out the national debt by maintaining its gold reserves and the silver and gold minting to support a dual currency economy during a transition period using both the devalued FRN and real money. Governments can mint vast amount of real money in response to the fiat money collapse. Global silver stocks are very low, but that would change as old mines are reopened, and gold has been retained in central banks. Silver and gold prices will explode in the FRN collapse diminishing the minting surcharge to a trivial percentage of value. It is unknown by this writer what is the current amount of minting of real money, but there is no slow down in gold jewelry purchases world wide and it seems that real money and jewelry could be easily used in a post-fiat money collapse scenario. Las Vegas may go back to the silver dollar bet, the hard way.
The real secret may be that the USA already has another back-up currency, the $1 silver and $50 Gold eagle coinage, a real money currency. When Palladium broke down below $200/oz in December 2004, that should have been an obvious buy signal, and Stillwater Mining and Northwest Territory Mint offer excellent assayed Pd rounds. In purchasing these rounds, it was realized that the US government wont recognize these Pd rounds as savings for retirement tax deductions. The IRS will honor retirement investments in US minted silver and gold eagle coinage, and hence, the infant beginning of the necessary return to real money, in the good old USA. The US $1 silver eagles have a relatively high minting surcharge, but that pales in comparison to the 95% lost of value of FRNs over the last century, and the losses to come between now and 2010 in FRNs, and will be completely made up by necessary price escalations in silver over the next few years as silver returns to at least $20/oz and maybe $100/oz in present value.
This real money believer and USA Yankee is now convinced of an FRN collapse at about 2010 and is now screaming the bi-currency rebel yell, based on the gold up trend and recent global central bank moves and the exploding national debt. It seems that one should reduce holdings of USA FRN fiat money and hold US minted eagle coinage, with the price escalation of real money exceeding that of controlled interest rates, in our route to the FRN monetary collapse in 2010. Personal FRN debt, such as a mortgage, is not a problem as long as the debt interest rates are fixed, and the writing is on the wall for refinancing variable interest rate debt into fixed interest rate debt to survive the coming collapse five to ten years hence. That is simply common sense. But it also seems that the US is now partially through retirement recognition, and is destined to be fully, a bi-currency economy, real money and fiat money, during a transition period to only real money world wide. I can now see US banks allowing for silver and gold bank accounts with the issuance of silver and gold certificates to supplement conventional FRN accounts, similar to the Russians with their multiple fiat currency bank accounts. Mr. Gnazza will surely be pleased. As real money becomes more popular, the government will eventually get back to a quasi gold-silver standard during a transition when there is both real money and fiat money, and then to a complete global silver-gold standard in the out years. The big losers are foreign central banks holding FRNs and Americans and savers with large FRN bank accounts. The US can, with its gold reserves, provide a solid economic currency to survive the up coming FRN collapse, wiping out FRN life time savings as US citizens and foreign central banks are burned by the uncontrolled fiat money US spending. This is, of course, just one man's opinion, but I could be right. Maybe by then, I will have retired, and take up shaking $100,000 FRNs on the streets of Laguna Beach California, using my wheelbarrow, if not to infirm, to transport the necessary $1 silver eagle coins for the street exchange at $100,000 FRNs to $1 eagle.
Vie Gravarite Parusski? (You speak Russian)?
Dasvadaya Adein Dualler Billyett!!! (Good Bye One Dollar Bills)
Derrick Michael Reid
Laguna Beach CA
Global Bi-Currencies Economies and Recessions,
Without the Doom Days
By Derrick Michael Reid
The LaMetropoleCafe.com web page published an article entitled "US Government is Preparing for the 2010 FRN collapse" on 12/26/05, by yours truly. (Federal Reserve Note --FRN--) In that article, it was stated then that: "The inevitable collapse the FRN will not spell doom for the good old USA … This is the good news. The USA is the 3rd largest gold producer subject to 2010 wind-fall taxes, as in 1860 when the comstock load silver mines funded the civil war, and when the USA $20 gold coin was king in the rebel south." The speculation of a FRN collapse seems in the cards but with a bi-currency solution.
There was also a projection of a bi-currency economy. "This real money believer and USA Yankee is now convinced of an FRN collapse at about 2010 and is now screaming the bi-currency rebel yell". "I can now see US banks allowing for silver and gold bank accounts with the issuance of silver and gold certificates to supplement conventional FRN accounts".
However, in that article, there was not a kind word for the US central banks activities that will lead us sheep to the altar when the FRN collapses. "The FRN being the world reserve currency, will be the first of the fiat money to fall from grace, as the world banks dump the dollar, trying not to be last to bail out of FRNs. The USA national debt will also be effectively wiped out by tremendous devaluation of the FRNs, a possible intended scheme by the US Government to effectively defraud bankers and savers world wide."
In retrospect, as a loyal American, I would like defend the USA, as best I can. It was and is the US tax payers that have really paid the higher price to civilize the world through vast expenditures upon military and state department efforts and aid, from WWI and WWII and to the present day. We Americans continue to pay for that civilization, while the rest of world basically stiffs the US with little effective contribution and counterproductive self serving acts. The foreigners enjoy the benefits of globalized world trade but don’t share in the cost of maintaining and protecting it.
It has been the USA soldier on the front lines, and the sea going battleships and carriers that have lead to a "democracy century" as the USA President has recently declared. In a convenient rationalization, I do not have a problem, really, with stiffing the foreigners, as simply the being the quid pro quo for their pacifism and evils in world affairs, and want of serious contribution to global civilization. That is, stiffing the foreigners by a collapsed FRN is simply the cost of doing global business enabled by USA military might in protecting international sea lanes and trade through civilizing societies and protecting global trade.
However, I will feel so sorry for those unsuspecting Americans who will get caught with large FRN bank accounts with no other hard tangible assets upon which to survive the coming FRN collapse and the resulting financial turmoil. But, we Americans have been through depression and will rise to this FRN collapse occasion as well. We will take care of our own, as our Christian-Judeo heritage compels us to do. However, if one was smart, one would hold dollars for daily expenses, but invest in tangible assets, like real estate and particularly precious metals, the base of any future bi-currency economy, and which, would have value world wide.
The declaration of a return to real money has recently been echoed by moves by the EU, Russian, and Chinese banks. In the January 5th 2006 LeMetropoleCafe.com James Joyce tread, it was stated: "Spoke with our STALKER source this afternoon. The buzz in London in the precious metal world is: More talk among the Saudis, Chinese, and Russians of a gold backed currency … maybe two currencies. They are supposedly concerned about the zillions of dollars floating around everywhere in the world. Word is they are feeling too exposed to a dollar debacle."
As such, the global trend toward world banks hoarding of gold seems to be coinciding with the prospects of bi-currencies in preparation for bi-currency economies and ultimately to only real money economies in the out years. That transition will be firstly to real money possession and secondly to real money economies, which is inevitable, though, there will certainly be a difficult transition period.
Sure there will be deep and long lasting recessions, if not an outright depression, at that important juncture when transiting between fiat dollars and real dollars in the economy. But, we Americans are a hearty, resilient, and optimistic bunch of capitalists, and will survive just fine. Nixon will be again d*mn for not only Watergate, but also severing the last ties between the dollar and gold. The soup lines may appear during the real money adjustment period, and possibly called "Nixon lines", but these lines wont last long, as we transition back to real money gold and silver coinage with a robust economy and with real money foreign exchanges.
On the other side of this strong optimism, is the constant prophecies of global doom, and the end times. I am just shaking in my boots! I think this is hog-wash as perpetrated by religious zealots and mainstream sensationalism news reporting. In a comprehensive projection of global confluence, it was realized that the geopolitical forces about the world are becoming ever more interconnected and actually merging and coalescing into comprehensive moving forces toward peace and stability now and more so into the out years. Reading the NY times, you would never know that, only that, the US is inherently evil and perpetrating unnecessary wars and genocide.
The real war these days has been going on for 100 years are more and is really between the Core and Gap, and the Core is definitely winning!!! That is the great news!! Iraq is just another battle in that war. A comprehensive understanding of the global conflict, that is the Global War underway between the Core and Gap, was revealed and discussed in an article entitled "The Stabilized Global Confluence Supports a Rising Tide of USA Conservatism into the Out Years, a Christmas projection of Human Cultural Evolution", by yours truly, 1/8/05, and was published at the Far Eastern State University in Vladivostok Russia.
In significant part, this global confluence analysis states: "As world empires and spheres of influence abut each other in the information age, human cultural evolution has lead to economical and political functional rule sets that are used to maintain relative peace during interactions of a CORE of economically and politically connected countries, including Russia, China, USA, EU, Japan, Australia, inter alia, that are coalescing into increasing cooperative action to prevent perturbations shocks, such as the 9-11 attack in New York, from a GAP of disconnected empires, countries and spheres of influence, including Africa, the Middle East, and the South Pacific Island Chains, leading to continued integration of GAP countries in the CORE and eventual world peace for decades, if not centuries, to come." (Abstract, in part) The article ends with two closing paragraphs.
"I believe we are reaching a tipping point, as the wealth, population, and interaction of the CORE of cooperative countries (Russia-China-India-EU-US, etc.) exceeds that of the non-functioning GAP of disconnected countries, (Africa, Middle East, and South Pacific, and of course, the cold-war hold-over in North Korea). Of the 6 Billion on earth, 4 Billion live in the CORE in relative peace as war breaks out from time to time in the GAP. As the CORE becomes more dominate over the GAP, at some point, there is the bend in an exponential, and rouge militant countries will fall like dominoes and connect with the CORE. President Bush, or for that matter, Osama Bin Laden's 9/11 attack, may have put into motion a last and inevitable collapse of social global militancy, as we as a global people will find over-all functioning peace for decades, if not centuries, to come. Yes, we Americans are culturally eternal optimists, and I plead guilty."
"Sure it is rosy global prediction, and sure assumptions are made, but it seems that there is a natural course of human cultural evolution, in that, there was first the creation of kings with tribal rule sets from the cultivation age to the iron age, then there were great empires battling for remaining lands and conquest over others from the iron age to the industrial age, but as the great geo-political CORE of the big four abut each other, with no more room for expansion, and the eventual learning of the draw backs of global war and the benefits of collective cooperation, human kind and geo-political functional rule sets finally culturally evolve from the empires of the industrial age into civilized partners in the information age, and in the end, that is a very good thing."(Last two paragraphs) See Global Confluence: http://imcs.dvgu.ru/news/dmr/globalconfluence.html
This projection of global confluence, a world wide trend towards global cooperation and peace, has been recently re-enforced, in a article by Mr. Andre Mack at the Washington Post, on 12/27/05.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/27/AR2005122700732.html
In that article, Mr. Mack makes some striking observations. "Seen through the eyes of the media, the world appears an evermore dangerous place", (Iraq, Darfur, Thailand, Bali), and that "people believe global violence is increasing". He correctly continues: "report reveals … armed conflicts … decline has continued". Particularly, "By 2003, there were 40 percent fewer conflicts than in 1992. The deadliest conflicts", "fell by some 80 percent", including genocides and mass slaughter".
This is an encouraging reinforcing development that the underway Global War between the Core and Gap is going very well indeed. So, it seems that the world in not going to hell in a hand basket, as many proclaim, but is definitely trending towards bi-currency economies in a cooperative more-peaceful global world of like bi-currency real-money economies. With a common measure of monetary value, gold and silver, the cheating world bankers will be history, or at least I hope so, once and for all. GATA will be proven correct, and hopefully some bankers will get lynched in public squares by those who's life savings were wiped out by the bankers' fraudulent schemes to control gold by selling short and loaning long while pumping vast amounts of fiat money into the economies.
In decades to come, no longer will fiat money be used to burn those unsuspecting citizens who placed so noble but unfounded trust in the world bankers. Bankers' reputations will sink to the contempt of lawyers and used car salesmen. To prepare for this futuristic bi-currency real-money economy world, a realignment of assets seems well advised, but with assurances and confidences in the prospects of a strong USA and a safe global world continuing through the out years, for decades, if not centuries, to come.
Cont.
This message was edited by DerrickMReid on 10-7-07 @ 9:15 AM
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DerrickMReid |
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10-07-2007 @ 9:16 AM
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Member
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Joined: Aug 2007
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Anglos Rule The Bi-Currency World
By Derrick Michael Reid
In foreseeing the inevitable collapse of the US federal reserve notes (FRNs), that is, dollar bills, projected to be about 2010, and the sinking of other world fiat paper moneys in its wake, it seems that the Anglo world, and its progeny, is the best prepared. As a skeleton of old Britannia, the nations of Britain, USA, Canada, South Africa, Australia, India, and China, the core of the old British empire, are the most prepared throughout the world. In searching for gold and silver coins that are currently minted in quantity, the number is strikingly few.
Significant Current Bi-Currencies
================================================
South Africa: Gold Kuggerands since 1970.
============= Fiat Money is the Rand
United States: Silver and Gold Eagles since 1986
============= 1 1/2 1/4 1/10 Gold, 1 Silver
============= Fiat Money: Federal Reserve Note
Swiss: Swiss Franc Backed by Gold
============= Swiss Franc Backed in part by Gold
Canada: Gold and Silver Maple leaf
============= 1 1/2 1/4 1/10 1/20 oz
============= Fiat Money: Canadian Dollar
China: Gold and Silver Panda
============= 1 1/2 1/4 1/10 1/20 oz
============= Fiat Money is the Yuan
Britain: Gold British Sovereign
============= Silver Britannia
============= Fiat Money: Pound & Euro
Austria: Gold Vienna Philharmonic
============= Fiat Money is the Euro
Australia: Gold Kangaroo
============= 1 1/2 1/4 1/10 1/20 Oz
============= Fiat Money: Australian Dollar
India: Indian Sovereign
============= Fiat Money: Rupee
================================================
Except for the Anglos, the big emerging Asian duo, China and India, Britannia's progeny, and the fortress nations of Switzerland and Austria, renown for their gold-solid, independent, and confidential banking, very few other countries are prepared for the sustained minting of the alternative real money in large quantities. Only a few major world central bankers have governmental mints running around the clock to produce in quantity standardized quality gold and silver coinage, that could used as a monetary base, and must be used as a monetary global standard, in the event of a global fiat money collapse. What is it that the Anglos, the emerging Asian duo, and the mountain fortresses know, that the rest of the world, does not know?
Certainly the Swiss have retained their independence from world conquerors, no doubt learn in earnest by their neighbor Austria post WWII. However, the Swiss and Austrians lack substantial gold mine production, as being unprepared. Russia and China, the darlings of the old communist world, have a bone to pick, but only of late seem to understand the full complexity of the global banking system in the style of those western capitalists with their golden hoards. Both Russia and China are making noises to increase their tiny gold holdings in direct fear of a dollar collapse, as being unprepared. Indians have always had a love of gold and are huge importers of gold as having few productive mines. India at least has minted coins, though lacks the gold mine production and bank gold stock piles, and to this day is the number one importer of gold, as being unprepared.
Sure, many countries do have specialty minting of commemorative coins from time to time, but not year after year production of standardized minting with face valued denominations, and in substantial quantities, with reliable gold supplies from domestic mines. Sure, there exists in collections around the world large quantities of modern, old, and ancient coinage, for trade as highly prized collector items. There would be problems with correlating correct values between various modern, old, and ancient coins and commemorative coinage, as being unstandardized for effective recurring circulation use in any economy. When the FRN crashing sounds occur, governments should be prepared to react quickly, and massively pump into their respective economies, like a instantaneous multiple shotgun salvo, large quantities of standardized gold and silver coinage, the only money then really trusted by all with recognized values for commerce, so as to smooth the economic recessions and trade collapses.
Many pretty ladies will be hard-pressed to give up their wedding rings and gifts of love, when really that is all they have left to buy food and essentials of life for their children. Many rare coin collectors will also be hard-pressed to give up their life long held treasures, unless starvation is staring them at their gaping mouths. Having been burned, it seems it would take years before anyone would trust gold and silver certificate bearer notes, purportedly issued with sincere central bank promises, to be truly backed by gold and silver. Standardized real gold and silver coinage would be readily accepted, with no other real choice, to conduct wide spread trade and to buy necessary goods, providing once and for all a global currency of undeniable defined value.
The problems with jewelry is the scams that would occur when trading in the 10K, 14K, 22K fine jewelry, when monetary scales are crookedly fixed against them. Trickery can occur on the other side of that exchange as well as witches and devils try to pass off gold plated metal for the real thing. I doubt the poor individual Indian would gladly surrender his or her only little treasure on earth to repair the Indian economy that ain't so good anyway, or the Chinese to readily surrender their hard earned modest savings. The problem with old and ancient coinage is the ruination of the numismatic value to the collectors' great loss as Caesar's face become smooth in a pool of melted metal. Joshua will certainly reappear from the mother load mines, yet again, and try to pass off gold plated coins as the real thing to both store clerks and local refiners, when just joshing. There would be a significant problem in regulating up-start refiners operating out of local garages, just trying to make a real buck, while pocketing a few extra grams here and there, unbeknownst to those departing with their last ounce of real monetary wealth. The problems of transition from a fiat money economy to a real money economy would be vast in scope and numerous in fraudulent schemes, and could only be solved by governmental standardized real money coinage in wide circulation usage.
To minimize the economic calamitous chaos and the depth of the severe recessions and depriving depressions, in the event of global fiat money collapse, governments and their respective central banks through their operating mints, must hit the ground running with a massive world wide accepted standardized backup currency in gold and silver coinage. To do this, there must be held vast gold and silver reserves with up to speed and fully operating mints and with continuous supplies from existing operating domestic mines. But there are few countries with such necessary hoards, and even fewer with such additionally operating mints these days, and even fewer still with the additionally required operating domestic mines.
As such, the world by and large, with so many different countries and respective currencies, is totally unprepared to meet the challenges of an instantaneous switch to real money when the fiat moneys collapse. In the Anglo world, the US and Canada, with their intertwined economies, appear to be the best prepared, with South Africa and Australia not so far behind, and with Britain following up in the rear having recently sold vast amounts of British gold at the 20 year low prices in about 2000, thanks to the exchequer Mr. Brown, especially in view of little mine domestic production. Australia and Canada might come to Britain's aid, of course, feeding gold stocks to British mints in order to save the queen. After this, the rest of world seems very ill prepared, in deed. Yes, there are hoards of jewelry and old coinage in the hands of private citizens, but when a government prepares for a total collapse of fiat money, there would be no real substitute for a genuine standardized freshly minted US Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, Chinese Panda, British Sovereign, Indian Sovereign, or a South African Kuggerand.
But what is it that the Anglo world seems to know that the rest of the world does not? It could be said that the production of real minted money these days is merely a reflection of the amount of gold production. South Africa No.1 with the Kuggerand, Australia No.2 with the Kangaroo, United States No.3 with the Eagle, China No.4 with the Panda, Russia No.5 with none, Peru No.6 with none, Canada No.7 with the Maple Leaf, being the top primary examples. China and Russia are now asserting that the gold component of their FOREX reserves should be increased, though this would probably occur through taxation and confiscation of their relatively large mine production, rather than open market purchases at high prices, which taxation and confiscation will, nonetheless, drive gold prices even higher by increased gold supply deficits, as we reach the day of the fiat money debacle.
Russia at one point, under the ruling czars, had the largest gold stores in all of Europe, but that vast hoard has apparently been squandered by the Bolsheviks and Communists trying to dominate the world. Its recent palladium hoard has been wiped out when used as collateral for a defaulted Swiss bank loan. Modernly, this vast Russian gold hoard was no doubt pocketed by ruling politburo chieftains, commissars, and greedy powerful oligarchs. Peru apparently has neither the desire to compete with other world mints, nor has the economy to justify the investment into quality mass minting facilities for the production of gold and silver coins. Russia has only a mere 500 tons and China has only a mere 600 tons of gold reserves, and unless they enter the gold purchasing open market in a big way, or confiscate domestic mine production, seem to be the laggards in preparedness among the big producers. It appears then, that the Anglo world is definitely more prepared than others world wide governments to meet the challenges of a global collapse of fiat money, which would be lead by the demise of US federal reserve note.
This Anglo dominance in preparedness seems almost calculated. The Canadian economy is inextricably tied to the US economy by virtue of its location on the North American continent and its extensive border with the USA. As Prime Minister Blair has led Britain behind the USA into Iraq, Britain seems destined to follow in the US foot steps, in all areas, as Sir Winston Churchill admonished his fellow citizens to do many years ago. South Africa and Australia seem to be similarly situated, though South Africa broke from its Anglo ties with its current anti-apartheid regime, but just happens to be blessed with vast gold reserves and production, and the Kuggerand operational minting left over from their dethroned white taskmasters there. Britannia's India, as a vicarious Anglo state, seems similarly inclined, though lacks substantial mines and gold stock piles. Britannia's China, also as a vicarious Anglo state, seems similarly inclined, though lack huge existing gold stores.
Even though Canada, Britain, Australia, and certainly South Africa have large peace and anti-war political constituents, when it comes to money, they all would seem to be on the same team and would fall in line in self interest, and jump on the real money band wagon, accelerating the fiat moneys into an early grave, as the rest of world subsequently catches up and jumps on in a second wave. While I am not being so bold as Mr. Murphy's GATA gang to propose for sure that there is a cabal involved, it seems highly coincidental, and, that it could have been planned. Notwithstanding a cabal in the Anglo gold producing world, it certainly seems that the Anglo world is the best prepared for the fiat money collapse.
In the event of an intentional or unintentional collapse of fiat moneys, the USA and her Anglo sisters would certainly survive a global fiat collapse better than most. While wars are often used to place an aggressor nation above others in power, control, influence, and wealth, the current progress of human cultural evolution is to avoid wars were possible and cooperate together for the common good. It seems then, that an alternative to war has been found, this time around, as the Anglo world could do the same by placing itself as the financial rulers of the world in a globalized world economy, in a war free global community, without firing a shot, by simply collapsing the FRN through uncontrolled fiat money printing while retaining backup real gold and silver coinage sustained production.
Gold Price Increases from Years of Suppression
By Derrick Michael Reid, 2/24/06
I cant believe at times, the so called collective wisdom, of the bullion market pundits, or should I say, the knee-jerk heard mentality and misdirectives of those allegedly in the know. The value of the dollar, oil prices, budget deficits, equity markets, trade deficits, terrorism, and even war, are all nice things that planet wall street likes to talk about, as is their elementary school training and desire for mutual back slapping being always correct time and time again, about how to justify to the sheeple recent upward moves in the price of gold (POG). However, these gold pundits are the true delirious Oracles of Delphi camping out in golden Maecieni. But they all miss the boat, time and time again. Here it is, in a nut shell.
World bank gold sales for the last decade, has suppressed the POG through the 90s, and to this day, but is finally running out of steam with deficit gold stocks in the banks to continue the suppression in earnest, and consequently, gold has made a spectacular come back since 2001. It is all simply market fundamentals, and no more. Curious how, in the end, its all fundamentals. Get it? Apparently not.
World bank gold sale suppression, that is, world bank POG suppression sales, loans, and leases for continuous short selling, major mine hedging, and massive commercial short positions have all functioned collectively to suppress the POG over the last two decades. The suppression of the POG has compounded the problem by producing low mine exploration and bullion production, naturally so, but with increasing demand in the face of decreasing supplies and increasing spot supply-demand deficits, and in combination with environmental resistance to new mine openings.
These sound fundamentals are the driver in the increases in the POG, presently in the face of a massive commercial short position build up over the years, now looking forward to massive short squeezes to propel the POG into four figures and soon. However, any direction to war with Iran as the caused, is misplaced in a first order analysis, but may be the second order analytic catalyst for the inevitable pending massive short squeezes, and parabolic accelerating POG prices in the near and long term.
It will take a massive short squeeze, four figure POG, five to seven years of increased POG, and increased exploration and production to bring the POG back to normal equilibrium, as is, in normal commodities markets. So, having a personal POG target of $2750/oz by 2010, buy gold, silver and PMG bullion and share positions, and buy some popcorn, and then kick it, watch the fire works, and make the big money, it’s a no brainer.
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The Dollar and War will be Respectively Replaced by Gold and Trade.
Derrick Michael Reid 5/13/06
"It cost about 75 cents to kill a man in Ceasar's time. The price rose to about $3,000 per man during the Napoleonic wars; to $5,000 in the American Civil War; and then to $21,000 per man in World War I. Estimates for the future wars indicate that it may cost the warring countries not less than $50,000 for each man killed." Senator Homer T. Bone. I was particularly intrigued by this quote from Senator Homer T. Bone, that the cost per death in war has increased. May I take that analysis a step further? Conclusion: He does not tell the whole story.
In the good old days, say, pre 1500s, when tribal kingdoms engaged in war, they took no prisoners, except women as concubines and slaves, and hence, the causality rate for the loser was 100%, the victor's rate was not much less, and one-on-one battles usually meant equal rates of causalities. Then came the middle ages, and chivalry, and if a besieged defender surrendered early, the garrison was spared with honor, otherwise the black flag. Then came the guns, but still, the ratios of deaths were even, with casualty rates of say 20%. Then came long range rifles and smoothbores, with many battles having 10-15% casualty rates, and garrisons were not slaughtered, but imprisoned or even exchanged or paroled. In the WWI and WWII the casualty rates continued to drop as a percentage to those engaged. In Korea and Vietnam, the technology differences became apparent, with kill ratios of 5:1 to 10:1 or more in many battles, but US death rates per battles were down to less than 5% for the stand up fight. The cold war provided a dry spell, but then emerge Gulf I and Gulf II, with advanced technology.
The military technology is exponentiating, and it seems that the bend in the curve seems to have occurred in the mid 1900s. Each day, our military technology advances and increases our differential effectiveness over our opponents who have like curves, but delayed in time, until we have reached a point these days, that in a stand up fight, we have less than 1% casualty rates. This is astounding! Of the 200K troops that have been cycled through mid-middle east, the casualty rate is about 1%. Along side these trends is the endless printing of fiat paper money to fund these military expenditures.
So, it seems that, over the last two millennia, the costs per death has increased, as the casualty rate has decreased, making a relative, net sum zero, in the cost of war, generally. War, in terms of the US perspective, has become more expensive but more safe for the US fighting man/woman, which supports the contention that the administration is providing fighting Joe with the best chances he ever had of surviving a battle or a war. Our armies and navies are all volunteer, and this should not change in the foreseeable future. The fighting Joe knows he has the best chances in history to survive. Along side this trend, is the trend toward fewer and less deadly wars, in terms of US battle casualties, but more expensive, the quid pro quo.
The cost of war will change in kind. The proclaimed demise of the almighty dollar, projected to start in mid summer 2006, is already upon us, and the dollar is expected to collapse around 2010-11. As trade wars become more popular over military wars, governments will be more keen to keep cheating banks from printing fiat money and from hiding state sponsored subsidies, and will seek to spend their military dollars on trade war productivity rather than unnecessary military hardware and personnel. The fights will be in trade wars, that will necessarily required a monetary standard of money that all can unequivocally agree upon as to value. Gold and Silver are the only real alternatives. Hence, as military war become disfavored over monetary trade war, additional pressures will come upon and to the end of fiat paper money, with the resulting use of paper money certificates that are backed up by Gold and Silver in bank and corporate vaults. Gold and Silver mines will be the real banks of mid 21st century. By 2025, there will be a boom in Gold and Silver prices and mining stock values the world has never seen in 5000 years of mining precious metals, which boom will make $20,000/oz Gold and $1,000/oz Silver seem a great bargain.
So, lets now do something positive, and project these concepts into this century. There will be fewer wars, fewer battle casualties, but it will cost allot more to wage or be prepared for war, until such time, that globalization become substantially complete (with the N. Korean or Iranian resolutions for examples) and cements the functional geo-economical-political rules sets that render military expenditures largely unnecessary for dispute resolutions. The inevitable globalization and confluence will in time render military expenditures largely unnecessary as world powers seek domination by trade and not by guns, as one does not wage war on one's customers, and all will seek to avoid perturbation shocks, such as 9/11. Contrary to popular belief, the Russians and Chinese have the most to loose in an Iranian war, and will seek to get Tehran to compromise with the "Great Satin" on the nuke issue.
The later half of this century will wage war, not by guns, but by trade, and the major issues then will be fair free trade war which in fact has begun in earnest, as well as over population, and environmental issues and resolutions. I wont be around to enjoy the fruits of 5000 years of cultural evolution of man-kind, in this regard of the inevitable global confluence, but it seems, that we as a specie are moving to a better plane of intercourse. With endless fiat money printing, paper currency will become history as well to prevent cheating banks from destroying the value of hard earned savings and wealth in order to sustain the trade wars. The world banks' and governments' only solution to fair trade, is the necessary use of a standard medium, Gold and Silver. As governments learn that expenditures of real money on military hardware and personnel diminishes their returns and limits their abilities to invest in trade productivity in trade wars, expenditures will shift away from war materials and fiat money to trade capital assets and real money for improved global trade competition. The ultimate projection is that the Dollar and War are completely replaced by Gold and Trade, say by 2025!
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Time Line to 35,000$/oz Gold
2007 Gold hits 1080, Silver hits 17, Iran remain defiant, NK remains defiant, Oil hits 80/barrow, Bush sits on Baghdad, insurgency is reduced. Peak Gold/Oil is on a perpetual down trend. US debt hits 10T.
2008 Gold hits 1650 (Sinclair was right), Rep Condi/C.Cox win US Election, Condi negotiate deal with china, and Japan, suffer reserve devaluation, ending NK nuke problem, and Taiwan start 20 year political process of re-integration into China, china agrees to allow election of local city and state officials. Tibet and Zauxia providence are sedated with religious freedoms and city/state elections.
2009 Gold hits 2100/oz, inflation officially hits 6%, real inflation over 10%, Dollar index 0.50 world economies are roaring. NK dismantle nuke weapons, allowed peaceful use under UN supervision. US shut down borders to all illegal immigration.
2010 Gold hits 2750 Silver hits 100/oz, Condi blockades Iran, Condi and Russia Czar agree that Russia has exclusive economic rights, to REBUILD all Iranian Nuke facilities, in event of confrontation, US blockades Persian gulf, Gulf of Token redo, US takes out all missile batteries and major nuke facility, negotiates deal, Mullah dont control, Hamas and Hezbalah are defanged, women have right of vote, Iran can have peaceful nuke use with UN oversight. Saudis give women right to vote in new constitutional monarchy, Russia gives back WWII Islands to Japan for 2000 tones of gold.
2011 Japan, China, Russia and US form the NPTO, North Pacific Treaty Organization. World arm production fall, standing armies reduced to home garrisons. world fiat inflation hits 12%. The CORE sits of Indonesia terrorism. Batth separatists in Spain throw in the towel, and disband, as do many other insurgencies around the world.
2012 Arab league and entire Muslim world promote the Saudi's "Islam yes, terrorism no", President Bush is now viewed as the defacto hero in the Muslim world, for saving them from centuries of intolerance and strong man rule. Pakistan has free elections. Taliban form a political party and join the Afghan government.
2013 Shiites and Sunnis in Arab world cease their 1000 year feud. Iraq is a modern democracy and prospering. Oil hits 400$/barrow. World fiat inflation hits 20%.
2014 Cuba decides to become a socialized democracy, economy explodes to the upside. Venezuela dictator Chavez is assassinated by local democrats, and seize power to institute free and fair elections.
2015 Gold hits 10,000/oz, US Government levies extra windfall taxes taking 30% of US Au/Ag production, as do many other countries, Russia join WTO, EU, and NATO as full member of the CORE. Security counsel is readjusted, Germany replace France, and Brazil and Japan are added to the security counsel.
2016 UN build massive "system administration force", peace keepers and logistics to support new democratic nations with peaceful objective to integrate GAP nations into the CORE. NATO and NPTO maintain an east and west strike force to take out any GAP bad guy.
2017 Bill OReilly Jr, the FACTOR redo, is broadcast around the world, as EU, and Russia is hit with a wave of conversion to Godly religions. US debt hits 20T$ of worthless fiat.
2018 Gold hits 15,000$/oz. US Government converts billion oz gold and 5 billion oz of silver into eagles, and issue gold/silver, certificate, as do many other countries, the world is effectively, a bi-currency world, exchanges between fiat and real money are available around the world.
2019 Iran, Iraq join the CORE of interconnected countries, SKorea and NKorea are merged together. UN focus attention on bad boys in Africa, the remaining hot-bed of GAP nations, but all quickly line up with to prevent inter-country war, War is officially effectively outlawed between nations, with all boundaries set in stone.
2020 Gold hits 34,000/oz Silver 10,000/oz, UN treaties the end of all fiat, US national debt wiped out, and all national debt wipe out, now UN PAYGO rules, and world converts to only real money as the medium of exchange. real money provides fair international trade, no tariffs allows, but tax of export is allowed. Neo-Con PNAC groupies declare victory in the 200 year global WAR for global confluence, ending 5000 years of cultural evolution where the entire earth interacts with civility, and non aggression under functional rule sets, such as the WTO rules with transparency.
2025 Alternative fuels, solar, ethanol, spell doom to the oil monopoly. Green house gases start to fall. Russia's economy explodes as a world class economic power.
2030, World effectively without wars and rebellions, as democracies sweep the globe, Bush was correct, this is democracy century. China becomes a full democracy.
2040, World government apportion birth rights, % gain in populations, and immigration levels, and addresses environmental and health issues.
===END=
This message was edited by DerrickMReid on 10-7-07 @ 9:19 AM
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DerrickMReid |
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10-07-2007 @ 9:46 AM
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Extrapolating from where we were, to where we are, to where we all are going:
A graceful degradation of the US fiat FRN, the world's reserve currency, with foreigners having huge FRN forex reserves, will effectively make the rest of the world pony up, do to devalued FRN, for the costs of the confluence, their fair share in civilizing the earth, as the US national debt goes to zero value, leading to a gold int'l economy without world wars replaced by the trade wars, (already heating up with microsoft in EU, trade tarriffs in the US for Yaun fixing).
Was it planned? I dont think so. Not in such words as politicians speak, but, one is presummed to intend the natural and proabable consequences of their acts. I came to these globalization conclusions independently, and I would have to believe, many think tanks, took a similar view, though, I am not in any think tank, just trying to think, though some seem to think, I cant.
Just one perspective, I could be right.
However, if any CT guys want to jump on this, there is food for mental leaps: "While wars are often used to place an aggressor nation above others in power, control, influence, and wealth, the current progress of human cultural evolution is to avoid wars were possible and cooperate together for the common good. It seems then, that an alternative to war has been found, this time around, as the Anglo world could do the same by placing itself as the financial rulers of the world in a globalized world economy, in a war free global community, without firing a shot, by simply collapsing the FRN through uncontrolled fiat money printing while retaining backup real gold and silver coinage sustained production."
hhmmmmmmmmmmmm
This message was edited by DerrickMReid on 10-7-07 @ 10:59 AM
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DerrickMReid |
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10-07-2007 @ 10:09 AM
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So,
Iraq (insurgency hatfield-mccoy being sedated)
Afghanistan (Talliban remnance, drug dealers)
Paskistan (Musharrif is screwing around, need fair elections)
Iran (there newk definance will be the Mullah's undoing, and democrats will rise, duing the blockade)
Burma (Monks on the warpath, maybe a interim power share junta/politicos, china nervous about spill over affect)
NK (testing capitalism, Ill was in Bejing, and the biggest news then, was Ill's amasement over China's exploding markets, and where you have a little initial business free speech, full-on democracy will necessarily follow)
War on Terror: whole world sharing intel, game over, while Al Quida has a time out in wazeiristan.
Many others coming to terms with this thing called Democracy, a political system giving all expression rights sedating alternative uncivil methods.
In late 1862, Lincoln addressed congress, re the emanipication proclamation, he raised the war to a much nobler effort more than merely preserving the union or emanicipation, but looked at the US democracy, as "the last best hope" for mankind, that the world would look to the US capitalistic-democratic human-rights experiment, and hence, the US can not fail in the struggle, and had an election during a civil war to prove that the experiment could be maintain even during a civil war. Well Well, here we are, 150 years later, and ol' abe, seems to have been RIGHT-ON, democracies are on every continent, growing, and Bush finalized it as now being "democracy century". Sure, Jefferson has the pirates, and Jackson went into Mexico, for respective outrages, but Lincoln was the first to make this notion of "confluence" articulated as such in a global context.
From the orignal gorilla in 1862 to the chimp in 2005, we, as a global community, are evolving!!! A good very thing.
But big steps (Soviets, Belin Wall, Chinese Capitalism), are seen clearly, it is the more subtle ones, in the aggregate that are more determinitive. I was sitting at a bar, around 1994, there about, and said the Berlin wall would fall, people looked at me as though I was nuts. I now sit in the cafe, and things are a changing, except people still look at me as though I am nuts.
Saudi women can drive a car these days, hey, it aint much, but just another little baby step, in the right direction.
Fatah was corrupt and got the boot, and Hamas got elected, but kept the war cry, and now gaza is in flames, great election result, eh? Fatah is reforming, but Hamas is not. Many a moderate palistinian may change alligence away from the killing. Its a slow process, takes time to learn this democracy civility thing, but learn they will, learn they must or become marginalized.
When you sum it all up, comprehensively, historically, objectively and rationally, it seems, the globalization confluence is inevitable, and more precisely, a DONE DEAL. Though, this is not much of a seventh-inning stretch, when youre up 169 runs, at the top of the ninth.
Many look at the FRN homogeny and complain that it is being used to project that evil thing, American Foreigh Policy, and this screeching is done in view of a degrading FRN, and complain that such FRN projection is furthering the diabalical evil empire's influence. Yet, when I simply remove the "EVIL JUDGEMENT" "EVIL INTENT" aspects, and look at it objectively, without the emotions, based upon observations, I am effectively saying the very same thing, (but without the evil judgment aspect, that I am not willing to make in conclusion, without the smoking evil guns under virtually every stone) yet I am poo-pooed not for the observations but for the inevitable conclusions. Go Figure. Well I have. The projected conclusion of confluence does not support the evil-empire blame-game mantra, now does it? So, one can say anything in the cafe, as long as it ends with expressed hatred for the US, including irresponsible sayings as Bush is liar, Feds are criminals, USA are nazies, and the like. As such, I am not nuts --as I make the same observations--I am very much in-line with the cafe, it just that, I have a speech impediment and dont use the correct anti-american hate-bush parlance, the difference being the choice of label used when making the judgment that the confluence is generally a good thing.
You can call it evil manipulation, timely market intervention, or sound financial management, who really cares what you call IT, but we all realize they do "it". Now that we agree they do IT, is it bad or is it good. Certainly bad for the mining business, in micro-economics. Can it be said that the Fed's cut was bad or good? Who really knows. But, if you are trying to find EVIL, in your hate-USA mentality, you will contrue all facts accordingly, that's for sure, and hence, you will. This is how one irresponsibly and unpatriotically reaches the incredible, the perposterous, Bush planned 9/11.
If the confluence is not planned, then it can not be evil or noble, per se. If it is not planned, yet inevitable, then it is a natural cultural evolution. I tend to believe the latter, though, it seems there is allot of good, in my judgement, in it all, and more to come. In each case WWI, WWII, Reagan v Soviet, Bush v Al Quida, Bush v Saddam, etc., decisions were made for the conflict of the day, facing what was believed to be bad, and over the long haul, these events seem to add up unidirectionally toward a confluence, that is mostly good and hence the gravatation. Yeah, I do think freeing 50 million from totalitarian/theocratic strong-man rule, is a good thing. The observations are real, the good results are real accordingly to my belief system, and on sum, I have concluded very positive in deed for the world.
There is nothing wrong with being an optimist, though, to survive in the cafe, you may have trouble being an optimist like me, so my advice, is to throw in some hate-USA hate-Bush, hate-Feds in your speech in here, every once in a while, to be on the team, so you may want to practice up on that a bit.
Your glass is way more than 1/2 filled.
This message was edited by DerrickMReid on 10-7-07 @ 1:18 PM
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joveno2029 |
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10-07-2007 @ 5:22 PM
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well, frothing waters run deep after all. i guess you really spent a lot of time thinking about this derrick. kudos to you. (you probably read a lot of the dune books and asimov's foundation series?)
just some thoughts:
* we'll let history and the peoples of the future judge if gwb is a moron or a brilliant statesman.
* how do you reconcile the global confluence movement with the also strong and growing devolution desires of people such as: secessionist desires by various states in the union, and the desires of the kurds, shiites, sunnis for their own states, or the basques in spain, or the muslims in mindanao, or the tamils in sri lanka etc.?
* mind you some of these peoples just want autonomy but i'm sure they want the cars and refrigerators and tv's of the confluence folks. but the more dangerous ones are the religious conflicts which will not be settled with money, or consumer goods.
* so yeah the world might be centralized into competing blocks like in orwell's world but there will be a lot of simmering conflicts within that will not be anesthetized by guns or butter.
* there was a global confluence of sorts right after wwII with the spheres of influence around communists pitted against the western sphere. that was gone by 1989. what institutions will be used to maintain the new confluence? how effective will they be? will it be held by force, or by money, or by other means?
i for one want to see a world where all the peoples are united, but i wouldn't want to be under anyone's thumb. and no group in the world wants to also. it has to be a change in our thinking, our emotions, our spirit, our vibration level. barring that no amount of force or manipulation will bring us all together.
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